Mizzima Commentary
There is little doubt that 2024 will be another challenging year for Myanmar’s resistance players and democracy activists seeking to highlight what is happening in the inaptly named “Golden Land”. In particular, the National Unity Government (NUG), speaking for the Myanmar people, will have their work cut out trying to make sure the international community, and the world’s media, pay attention to the crisis continuing to unfold at home.
WORLD ATTENTION
Keeping Myanmar in the spotlight will be tough in large part due to the other pressing crises that dominate mainstream media headlines internationally. Right now, world attention is focused on the Israel-Gaza conflict, the Russia-Ukraine war, the illegal migrant crisis at the southern USA border, major migration issues, dire economic trends, and the climate change issue. Fears have been voiced about a major economic crisis in the USA and Europe, as well as the potential threat of a major cyberattack, posing a danger to internet and power. In addition, 2024 is an election year in the USA and UK, and local politics will dominate the news cycle in those countries.
LAST CHANCE
Myanmar needs attention and it would not be an exaggeration to says the country’s soul is at stake as the Myanmar resistance doubles down to get rid of military rule, once and for all.
The conflict sparked by the 2021 military coup is viewed by most players as a “last chance” to get rid of military autocratic rule that has dogged the country since General Ne Win’s 1962 military coup, enslaving the people and holding back potential progress and development. A range of players have pitched in with the goal of getting rid of the brutal military junta and bringing in a democratically elected government under a federal system. These include the National Unity Government (NUG), People’s Defence Forces (PDF), and Ethnic Revolutionary Organizations (ERO), and a host of non-governmental organizations and activist groups.
DAMAGING ASEAN
In addition, the ongoing Myanmar crisis is muddying the Association of South East Asian Nations’ regional and international standing, and posing problems in how the regional nations handle the trouble in their midst. ASEAN typically displays reluctance to interfere in the internal affairs of forum member states, and has demonstrated problems in getting to grips with the Myanmar crisis as seen in the failure of the 5 Consensus Points, agreed in the wake of the coup in 2021. Laos takes over the ASEAN chair for 2024 and it is unclear whether they will do better than their predecessors and make any progress with the issue in the ASEAN forum.
MULTI-PRONGED APPROACH
Keeping Myanmar in the spotlight will need a multi-pronged approach, a combination of political, media, and NGO actions, built on the bedrock of the military actions of the Spring Revolutionary forces. Clearly, the NUG will need to lead the charge, building on its painstaking work of outreach diplomatically around
the world. To name names, NUG Foreign Minister Zin Mar Aung has been in the forefront of a drive to put a spotlight on the Myanmar crisis in diplomatic circles, traveling to the USA, Europe and Asia and helping open NUG offices abroad.
The opening of a NUG liaison office in Washington, D.C. in February 2023 was made possible resulting from the passage of the Burma Act, as part of last year’s National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). The Burma Act broadened the US government’s authority to impose sanctions against the military government that seized power in February 2021 and extend a range of non-military aid to the various groups resisting the junta. Passage of the Burma Act was a “win” for the NUG and the Washington office will play an important role in the NUG’s struggle against the military junta.
OPENING OFFICES
Zin Mar Aung, speaking to media at the office opening in February, said the presence of US government officials “signaled the state of official engagement” between the US government and the NUG. Similarly, NUG outreach in Europe and in Japan signals a willingness by foreign governments to take the NUG seriously, even though some Myanmar analysts complain that the NUG suffers from a lack of a charismatic figurehead. This lack of a face is tricky. Former civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi is incommunicado in jail, Duwa Lashi La is acting NUG president but reluctant to hog the limelight, and Zin Mar Aung as NUG foreign minister is the “mover-and-shaker” when it comes to diplomatic affairs.
As commentator Sebastian Strangio has pointed out, despite most Western nations roundly condemning the coup, few have extended the NUG the recognition that it requires. The main reason is that it would most likely force them to close their embassies in Yangon, cutting them off from any diplomatic representation within the core of the country. It might also court tensions with neighbouring countries, such as China and Thailand, that have taken a relatively accommodating position toward the coup government, and commit them to a level of support to the NUG that they are unable or unwilling to take.
RIDING THE WAVE
That said, 2024 may see the NUG riding the wave of resistance successes as Operation 1027 continues in the north and further inspires PDFs and EROs to step up their actions against the military junta.
Keeping Myanmar in the spotlight will need a combination of diplomatic and resistance efforts to make sure governments, the United Nations, humanitarian organizations, and the media give the country its due attention.
Myanmar matters. But, as we head into the new year, it will be crucial for all the main resistance players to step up their game as they battle for Myanmar’s soul.
Sources: Mizzima. AFP, The Diplomat
