Myanmar junta military soldiers parade during a ceremony to mark the 75th anniversary of the country’s Union Day in Naypyidaw on 12 February /Photo:AFP
Mizzima Editorial
Ever since the 10 February statement by the Myanmar junta that they were going to enact the 2010 military conscription law, many young Myanmar citizens have been trying to second-guess when the clampdown will actually begin.
For some unfortunate souls, the junta authorities and militia groups have stepped in and detained people – even arresting aircraft passengers, or picking up Rohingya to fight alongside the military against the Arakan Army.
People are panicked. But is in not yet clear how much breathing space those potentially affected have to act – to get a passport and visa and escape, or run away to a “free” area of the country where the junta has no control. At this stage, that breathing space could be about a month.
The junta says it aims to enlist 5,000 new recruits monthly, starting in April 2024, and thus 60,000 yearly. NGO ISP-Myanmar says it appears that the objective is to restore the military’s strength to pre-coup levels within the first year of recruitment. According to ISP-Myanmar research, the Myanmar Army previously had 200,000 forces at its peak, but even before the 2021 coup this had dropped to 160,000 soldiers and since the coup the number of personnel in the Myanmar Army has dropped to about 100,000.
According to the junta, the organizing and paperwork is underway. The junta spokesperson says that the training of the first cohort will be conducted after the Myanmar New Year Water Festival in April. The next steps after completing the list will be summoning through conscription notice letters and conducting medical checks, which could take around two months.
Therefore, the first cohort might commence training as early as June and as late as August. If the training duration can be considered four to five months, the training for the first cohort will conclude either in November, December 2024 or January 2025, according to ISP-Myanmar’s calculations.
It is hard to know who is at most risk of getting called up. But anecdotal evidence suggests young people in Yangon and Mandalay feel the most vulnerable. People appear to be reducing their time out at the shops or in night life areas. And many fear a knock on the door.
Myanmar is in a dark space and the situation looks set to get worse.
