Beijing CBD and the Forbidden City, taken from Central Radio & TV Tower in October 2021
Sun Lee
A decade ago, China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was heralded as a transformative force, promising infrastructure development and economic prosperity across the globe. Among its primary targets was Southeast Asia, a region of 690 million people seen as China’s backyard.
However, as the wave of Chinese investments swept over the region, it has become increasingly evident that China’s influence in Southeast Asia is not without its pitfalls and dangers.
At first glance, the influx of Chinese money into Southeast Asia seemed promising. Giant earth-moving machines, Chinese construction crews, and diplomats descended upon the region, promising roads, railways, and power plants. Cambodia’s new Phnom Penh-Sihanoukville expressway, cutting travel time from the capital to the south coast, was hailed as a success. However, beneath the veneer of progress lies a darker reality.
Many BRI projects have failed to deliver promised returns, with some even proving grossly wasteful or environmentally damaging. Malaysia’s debacle with $1.8 billion given to Chinese firms for pipelines in Sabah, now shelved, is a prime example. The absence of a coherent strategic plan behind the BRI has led to overcapacity-driven Chinese state-owned firms rushing into the region, driven more by profit motives than strategic foresight.
China’s economic hegemony in Southeast Asia is further complicated by its efforts to embed a cultural narrative of natural cooperation among Asian nations. However, Beijing’s assertiveness in territorial disputes, mistreatment of minority groups, and allegations of political meddling have strained relations with its neighbors. Despite this, Southeast Asian nations find themselves walking a tightrope, hesitant to openly criticize China for fear of economic repercussions. This hesitance is symptomatic of a broader power imbalance in the region. While Southeast Asian countries are willing to voice concerns about Western powers, they tread carefully when it comes to China. This asymmetry of incentives has created a dynamic where China’s dominance in Southeast Asia appears increasingly inevitable.
One of the most pressing concerns is the militarization of disputed territories in the South China Sea. China’s aggressive actions, including the construction of military installations on artificial islands, have heightened tensions and raised fears of potential conflict. Southeast Asian countries, reliant on maritime trade routes for economic prosperity, face the daunting challenge of asserting their territorial claims while avoiding confrontation with a militarily superior China. Furthermore, China’s economic dominance poses risks to the region’s long-term prosperity. While Chinese investments may initially boost infrastructure development and create employment opportunities, they often come with strings attached. Many Southeast Asian countries have found themselves ensnared in debt traps, unable to repay loans and forced to cede control of strategic assets to Chinese creditors. This economic dependence on China undermines the region’s sovereignty and leaves it vulnerable to exploitation.
Moreover, China’s influence extends beyond the economic sphere, shaping political dynamics and undermining democratic institutions in Southeast Asia. Through its “sharp power” tactics, including media censorship, disinformation campaigns, and support for authoritarian regimes, China seeks to exert influence and suppress dissent within the region. As a result, Southeast Asian countries face increasing pressure to align with China’s interests, sacrificing their own democratic principles in the process.
In response to China’s growing assertiveness, Southeast Asian nations must strengthen regional cooperation and solidarity to counterbalance Chinese influence. By presenting a united front and advocating for a rules-based international order, the region can assert its autonomy and protect its interests against Chinese encroachment. Additionally, Southeast Asian countries must diversify their economic partnerships and reduce dependency on China, seeking alternative sources of investment and trade to ensure long-term sustainability.
Ultimately, the future of Southeast Asia hinges on its ability to navigate the complex geopolitical landscape and resist external pressures from China. By upholding principles of sovereignty, democracy, and mutual respect, the region can assert its identity and shape its own destiny in the face of growing Chinese influence. Only through unity, resilience, and strategic foresight can Southeast Asia overcome the challenges posed by China’s predatory grip and emerge as a prosperous and independent region on the global stage. Amidst the specter of Chinese hegemony, there are glimmers of hope. Southeast Asian nations are not passive actors in the face of China’s rise. They are seeking to diversify their economic partnerships, embrace new technologies, and assert their own interests on the global stage. However, the road to autonomy is fraught with challenges. China’s deep pockets and aggressive economic tactics make it difficult for Southeast Asian nations to resist its influence. The lack of transparency and accountability in Chinese investments leaves countries vulnerable to exploitation and coercion.
Moreover, China’s efforts to cultivate a narrative of Asian solidarity serve to undermine regional unity and perpetuate a cycle of dependency. By framing itself as a benevolent benefactor, China seeks to mask its true intentions of dominance and control. In this context, Southeast Asian countries must be wary of falling into the trap of “debt-trap diplomacy.” While Chinese investments may offer short-term economic gains, they often come with hidden costs and long-term consequences. The region must prioritize sustainable development and safeguard its autonomy in the face of predatory Chinese tactics.
The Philippines’ experience with illegal online gambling and Malaysia’s entanglement with the 1MDB scandal underscore the dangers of unchecked Chinese influence. Despite this, Southeast Asian countries continue to welcome Chinese investments, albeit with increasing caution. Moving forward, Southeast Asia must adopt a more assertive stance towards China, balancing the benefits of economic cooperation with the need to protect national interests and sovereignty. This requires greater transparency, accountability, and strategic planning in dealing with Chinese investments.
Moreover, Southeast Asian nations must strengthen regional cooperation and solidarity to counterbalance China’s growing influence. By presenting a united front, the region can assert its autonomy and resist Chinese attempts at hegemony.
China’s predatory grip on Southeast Asia poses a significant threat to regional autonomy and sovereignty. While Chinese investments may offer economic opportunities, they also come with hidden costs and risks. Southeast Asian countries must tread carefully, balancing the benefits of economic cooperation with the need to protect national interests and safeguard regional autonomy. Only through unity, resilience, and strategic foresight can Southeast Asia navigate the challenges posed by China’s growing influence.
Sun Lee is a pseudonym for a writer who specializes in Asian affairs.
