Three years after seizing control, the military still struggles to control Myanmar/ Image: AFP/ Getty Images
Mizzima
The 13 February introduction of the Myanmar Conscription Law will have at least five negative consequences, according to an analysis by the ISP-Myanmar non-governmental organisation (NGO).
The first potential consequence of implementing the conscription law during the peak of the civil war is widespread human rights violations. Such violations are likely to occur throughout the recruitment, training, and deployment phases. Individuals may face oppression and discrimination based on factors like place of residence, age, ethnicity, faith and religion, economic status, and gender orientation. Currently, there are reports of the military abducting people and forcibly recruiting in certain areas. While the junta has dismissed some of these reports as false information, the conscription law could legitimise such incidents.
A second potential consequence is that this law will open avenues for bribery and corruption at all levels within the regime, affecting the entire society. Incidents of bribery between individuals seeking to evade military service and civil-military authorities may become widespread. There is no sustainable way to curb such corruption in Myanmar. In other countries, cases of corruption often arise during the process of determining individuals unfit for military service or in attempting replacements.
A third potential consequence is the mass migration of working forces to neighboring countries, leading to a brain drain. Individuals with the financial means and access to opportunities are seen massively leaving the country within days of the law taking effect. The Royal Thai Embassy in Yangon has announced that it can only process 400 visa applicants per day as it receives a massive rush of applications. (Thailand is the immediate or temporary popular destination for people from Myanmar). In addition to leaving the country through this avenue, some individuals may opt for illegal means to leave the country and considering that the law also applies to expatriate citizens, some may even go so far as to permanently leave the country. Mass migration from Myanmar combined with the current nearly five million conflict refugees from Myanmar may pose a threat to regional stability.
The fourth potential consequence is that recruitment will target primarily young people in rural areas, potentially affecting impoverished youth more severely. At the same time, it could also target Burmese and minority youths from areas with no significant insurgency groups and armed conflicts. Therefore, coercing these young people into military training and deploying them to the battlefield risks exacerbating societal divisions and animosities based on class, race, religion, and region throughout the country.
The fifth possible consequence of the Conscription Law is that it could increase the likelihood of youths, especially in conflict regions and nearby, joining Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) or the People’s Defense
Forces (PDFs). For instance, the youths of Rakhine, Chin and Karen ethnicities would rather join EAOs that represent their ethnicities. Youths from the dry zone and areas where the majority is Bamar ethnic would similarly rather join the nearby PDFs or Local Defense Forces (LDFs) where their close friends and acquaintances might be located. Whilst the junta asserts that evading the military service law and joining other armed groups is punishable under existing laws, youth in conflict zones often just brush off these threats.
ISP-Myanmar points out that junta conscription means that ethnic armed forces will be simultaneously compelled to recruit and bolster their military capabilities. If there is no focus on a comprehensive peace process while the military forces are expanding at an accelerated rate and subsequent expansion of conflict, Myanmar’s armed conflict level is unlikely to be reduced in the foreseeable future.
Being forced to serve in the military for a set duration – typically at least two years – during one’s youth comes with an opportunity cost at an individual level as well as at the society level. When a nation collectively chooses the path of securitization and militariza- tion, it inevitably incurs an opportunity cost in the development and productivity of the nation, impeding the country’s positive trajectory for generations to come, said ISP Myanmar.
The Institute for Strategy and Policy – Myanmar (ISP – Myanmar) is an independent, non-partisan and non-governmental think tank. Established in 2016, ISP-Myanmar aims to promote democratic leadership and strengthening civic participation in Myanmar through its key strategic programs and initiatives.
