Mizzima Editorial
The Arakan Army’s 25 March announcement of invitation to foreign investors to put their money into the impoverished Rakhine State could be an indication that the AA is confident of victory against the Myanmar junta.
The announcement, published by the local media, welcomed any investments that benefit Rakhine State and it would also ensure the security of any such projects and the security of the people working on them. It also highlighted that the AA is a reliable organisation and is doing its best to bring peace, stability, security, new administrations, regional development and healthcare, as soon as possible, to the areas under its control.
The announcement also urged foreign investors who already have projects underway in Rakhine State to cooperate with the AA and continue with their projects. Foreign-financed projects underway in Rakhine State include the Chinese funded Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone (SEZ) and the Indian-funded Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project (KMMTTP), which also goes through areas of Chin State under AA control.
The announcement is important. While AA victory is not assured, and a great deal of damage may be inflicted on the state before the guns fall silent, the stance is one of confidence as Myanmar’s protracted conflict worsens.
Currently, the AA is in control of Paletwa Township in Rakhine State and the townships of Pauktaw, Mrauk-U, Kyauktaw, Minbya, Myaybon, Ponnagyun, Ramree and Rathedaung in Rakhine State.
According to the AA announcement, it is currently launching attacks and offensives against all the remaining junta military outposts in Rakhine State and it will not stop until all the posts surrender or are overrun by the AA.
This is one more reminder to the junta that it is losing its grip. But it will also be a reminder to major foreign stakeholders – notably China, India and Russia – that they will increasingly need to deal with players holding ground, rather than the generals in their ivory tower in Naypyidaw.
We have glimpsed this in the meetings held in Kunming recently involving the Three Brotherhood Alliance holding ground in northern Shan State in the wake of Operation 1027. And China may well have to similarly engage with the AA as they get closer to accomplishing their dream of an autonomous Arakan State.
And all of this will need to be factored in when it comes to how the opposition National Unity Government or NUG approaches their federal union template for the country when the military junta eventually steps down or is kicked out of power. Right now, getting rid of the military junta and seeking peace is the priority. After that, the federal union template will need to be hammered out.
