Analysis of satellite images has led researchers to believe the islands are almost finished. Picture: AFP
Mizzima
China is stealthily moving ahead with its plan to dominate the South China Sea with its man-made islands equipped with military installations and top-notch surveillance equipment. These islands have strong geopolitical and strategic implications and will play a pivotal role in China’s desire to become the world’s biggest superpower by 2049.
Although China has taken a bold step to protect its interests by building artificial islands in the South China Sea, it also has its own problems to sort out that could mess up its plans.
As China aims for superpower status by 2049, it needs to understand that its geography works against it in achieving this goal. China is surrounded by hostile islands that prevents it from projecting power in the world’s oceans and threatens to shut down its shipping routes, on which the whole of China is dependent. To mitigate this threat China has attempted to increase its power in South China Sea, by seizing control of disputed islands, rocks, and reefs.
China has weaponised these islands by building airfields, hangers, radar stations, anti-aircraft missiles, and ship-wrecking weapons. The United States and China’s neighbours have been closely watching these developments astonished with the pace China is restructuring these islands. But as China is trying to solve one problem through these islands it has created another one for itself.
The legal origin of the artificial islands comes from China’s infamous nine-dash line map, which claims 90% of waters in South China Sea, including the Spratly Islands. This nine-dash line extends from the coast of Hainan Island, China, and runs close to the coast of Vietnam. China lays claim over these area through historical evidence that its people from the Xia dynasty lived there in the year 2070 BC, but not many buy their claims.
Evaluating the South China Sea’s economic status, it has 15% of the world’s fishing potential, 11 billion barrels of oil, and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. In 2021, 22% of world trade, estimated $5.3 trillion, passed through the shipping lanes in this area, including 60% of maritime trade, 40% of petroleum products, and 27% of the world’s total shipping.
Therefore, China wants full control over the South China Sea to control world trade. By fortifying the islands in South China Sea China can boost its own trade, exploit the natural resources, and exclude rival nations or charge them heavy tariffs.
But geo-strategically, South China Sea, is trapped within the first island chain. To make matter worse, these islands are aligned with China’s strategic rival, the United States of America. Due to those geopolitical alignments, the US can easily choke a few points in South China Sea to cut off shipping to Beijing, including the Strait of Malacca, a major energy supply route for China. Therefore, by militarizing the islands in the South China Sea China can have closer access to the Strait of Malacca.
China has been projecting power in the South China Sea at the expense of countries like the Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam, by encroaching upon their exclusive economic zones. China has been flexing its muscles in the South China Sea since the 1970s, when it seized control of the Paracel Islands from Vietnam, later in 2012 it seized control of Scarborough Shoal from the Philippines, and by the year 2013 it started building artificial land blocks in the Spratly Islands, and today it has 28 military outposts in the waters projected in Nine-Dash Line map.
Experts believe that it is the presence of the US navy in the South China Sea that has pushed back China’s People Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) in this area, otherwise it would be fearlessly asserting its will on shipping lanes and countries in the area. Fortunately, it is not just the US Navy that is holding back the Chinese, nature is also causing them problems. Due to poor build quality, many of these artificial islands cannot hold sand and have started to sink and erode. In fact, because the islands at Subi Reef, Mischief Reef, and Fiery Cross Reef in the Spratly Islands were built quickly with sub-standard construction work they were not able to land fighter jets from the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) by 2020. Even the weather in this area can be a threat to these shoddily built islands as one single typhoon can destroy these structures easily and the rising sea levels can submerge them as well.
Beijing has invested a huge sum of capital in building these man-made islands and if these islands are to be destroyed, by weather or rival nations, the whole plan of controlling the South China Sea is going to fail.
The fortification of these islands has cost China not just money but also priceless human hours. This island building campaign has now become a prestige issue for Beijing but at the same time it is also draining its resources. China aimed for hegemony on the world stage by building these islands but started bullying its neighbours in the process and illegally capturing vast areas in the South China Sea. Therefore, all its efforts are in vain as China has created many enemies in the process whilst gaining very little.
